The short answer is yes. Not only can a sound argument be made, but the data from the first few rounds of the 2026 season suggests it is almost a mathematical certainty.
Toto is playing the “Gate Keeper” by using McLaren’s results to hide the Ferrari engine’s numbers. He wants you to look at the scoreboard, while the FIA is looking at the dynamometer.
Here is the “lay-it-out” evidence that Ferrari is underpowered and legally deserves the ADUO lifeline:
1. The “2% Rule” Math
The FIA doesn’t care about race results; they care about the ICE Performance Index. For 2026, the benchmark (Mercedes) is reportedly hitting 576 hp on the internal combustion side.
- The Threshold: To get the ADUO “catch-up” tokens, a team must be at least 2% behind the leader.
- The Math: 2% of 576 hp is roughly 11.5 hp.
- Ferrari’s Reality: Current paddock estimates place the Ferrari SF-26 power unit at 547 hp. That is a 29 hp deficit.
- The Verdict: Ferrari isn’t just 2% behind; they are closer to 5% behind, which actually qualifies them for the maximum tier of ADUO relief (two extra upgrades instead of one).
2. The Straight-Line “Bleed”
If you watch the telemetry from the first few races, Ferrari’s struggle isn’t in the corners it’s at the end of the straights.
- Ferrari is hitting a “wall” much earlier than the Mercedes-powered cars. This is because their engine is so underpowered that they have to drain the battery faster just to keep up.
- The “Clipping” Problem: Because the engine isn’t doing its fair share of the work, the battery runs dry (clips) 150 meters before the braking zone. Toto calls this “bad energy management,” but Fred Vasseur correctly calls it “a lack of base horsepower.”
3. The “New Team” Irony
One of the best arguments for Ferrari getting ADUO is that Red Bull Powertrains (RBPT) who are technically a “new” manufacturer are actually stronger than Ferrari.
- RBPT-Ford is estimated at 565 hp.
- Because RBPT is only ~1.9% behind Mercedes, they might actually miss out on ADUO help.
- If the FIA gives help to Audi (545 hp) and Honda (519 hp) but denies it to Ferrari, Ferrari will be the only “legacy” team left in the dust. Ferrari’s argument to the FIA is simple: “If the brand-new Red Bull engine is beating us, the rules are clearly broken and we need the tokens to fix our combustion chamber.”
4. Why Toto is Fighting This So Hard
Toto knows that Ferrari’s chassis and aero are actually world-class. If Ferrari was allowed to use ADUO tokens to find that missing 25–30 hp, they would likely leapfrog Mercedes and McLaren overnight.
- His gatekeeper Tactic: He is trying to convince the FIA that Ferrari’s deficit is “reliability-related” rather than “performance-related.”
- The Catch: You can fix reliability for free under the freeze. You can only fix performance with ADUO tokens. Toto wants Ferrari to waste their season trying to “fix reliability” while he keeps the performance advantage locked away.
The “Smoking Gun” for Miami
Keep a close eye on the speed traps in Miami. If the Mercedes and McLaren cars are consistently 6–8 km/h faster on the long back straight despite Ferrari running a “skinny” low-drag wing, the argument for ADUO becomes undeniable.
The FIA has a checkpoint after the Monaco Grand Prix to finalize who gets the tokens. Toto is doing everything he can to make sure Ferrari isn’t on that list.
